What is EPA in the NFL?

In the world of American football, understanding advanced statistics can provide valuable insights into a team's performance. One such advanced metric is EPA, or Expected Points Added, which has gained prominence in recent years. EPA is a statistical measure used to evaluate the impact of individual plays or players on a team's overall offensive or defensive performance. Let's dive deeper into what EPA entails and how it is applied in the NFL. 

What is EPA in the NFL? 

Before you get to know what Expected Points Added (EPA) is, make sure you understand the term Expected Points (EP) in advance. So, what are they?

Expected Points (EP) Definition

Expected Points represent the average number of points a team can expect to score on a specific play, given the down, distance, and field position.

"In simpler terms, EP quantifies the value of a particular situation in a football game."

For instance, a team might start a possession with the ball on its own 20-yard line on a first-and-10 play. The EP in this scenario might be around 0.5 points, indicating that, on average, a team can expect to score half a point from this field position and down.

Expected Points Added (EPA)

EPA builds upon the concept of EP but focuses on the change in EP caused by a specific play.

"It quantifies the impact of individual plays on a team's chances of scoring points."

When a play results in positive EPA, it means that the team has increased its expected points, while negative EPA suggests a decrease in expected points.

For example, a long pass completion for a touchdown typically results in a significant positive EPA, as it substantially improves the team's scoring prospects. Conversely, a costly interception might yield a negative EPA due to the reduced scoring potential.

Read more: How to Bet on NFL Games?

Detailed Examples EPA in the NFL

Certainly, let's present the examples of EPA in the NFL in a more reader-friendly format:

Example 1: Positive EPA - Offensive Success

Situation: The offense is at first-and-goal on the opponent's 5-yard line.
EP (Expected Points) before the play: Around 4.0 points (indicating a high likelihood of scoring).

• Outcome: The offense scores a touchdown on this play.
• Change in EP: +6.0 (4.0 points before the play and 10.0 points after the play).
• Interpretation: This positive EPA of +6.0 reflects the success of the offense in a high-scoring situation.

Example 2: Negative EPA - Defensive Stop

Situation: The opposing team faces fourth-and-long on their own 30-yard line.
EP before the play: Only about 0.3 points (indicating a low likelihood of scoring from deep in their territory).

• Outcome: The defense forces an incomplete pass, resulting in a turnover on downs.
• Change in EP: -0.3 (-0.3 points before the play and 0 points after the play).
• Interpretation: This negative EPA of -0.3 indicates the success of the defense in preventing the opponent from scoring.

Example 3: Risk-Reward Assessment

Situation: The offense faces a fourth-and-short situation near midfield.
EP before the play: Approximately 1.5 points (indicating a moderate scoring opportunity).
Option 1: The team chooses to go for it and successfully converts.

• Change in EP: +1.0 (1.5 points before the play and 2.5 points after the play).
• Interpretation: Going for it on fourth down was a smart decision as it increased the team's expected points.

Option 2: The team goes for it but fails to convert, turning the ball over.

• Change in EP: -1.5 (1.5 points before the play and 0 points after the play).
• Interpretation: Going for it on fourth down didn't pay off, reducing the team's expected points significantly.

What Can EPA Help Players in Betting?

Understanding EPA can be a valuable asset for sports bettors, particularly in the NFL:

• Informed Betting Decisions: EPA analysis can help bettors make more informed decisions. By assessing a team's and players' historical EPA metrics, you can gauge their offensive and defensive capabilities, aiding in predicting game outcomes and point spreads.
• Identifying Value Bets: EPA can uncover value bets by highlighting instances where bookmakers' odds may not accurately reflect a team's true performance. A team with a consistently high offensive EPA might be underestimated by oddsmakers, presenting a betting opportunity.
• Live Betting Advantage: Live or in-play betting benefits from EPA analysis as it provides real-time insights into a team's performance. Quick reactions to positive or negative EPA plays can lead to advantageous live bets.

Read more: What are Units in Sports Betting?

FAQs

1. What's the difference between EPA and traditional statistics in NFL analysis?

Traditional statistics like yards gained can be misleading, as they don't account for the situation or context. EPA, on the other hand, considers down, distance, and field position, providing a more nuanced evaluation of plays and players.

2. Can EPA be used to assess individual player performance?

Yes, EPA can be broken down to evaluate individual player contributions. It helps in assessing how a player's actions impact a team's scoring potential, making it a valuable tool for player analysis.

3. Are there online resources for accessing EPA data in the NFL?

Yes, several online platforms and websites provide EPA and advanced statistics for NFL games. These resources can be valuable for bettors looking to incorporate EPA into their research and analysis.

EP and EPA are important stats that you will often hear in NFL games. They can measure how much influence one player has on the performance of a team, or of an entire squad in a certain play. While these indicators are more commonly used by professionals, if you are a highly specialized bettor, you can fully utilize its ability to gain an advantage over sportsbooks.